Canada unemployment is reported at 7.7%, with 295,000 positions gone since October 2008. This brings the total to 1.42 million.
Meanwhile the US unemployment has been reported to be over 10%. Note that this figure is actually conservative under stringent unemployment criteria. For example, only jobless workers in the labor force actively looking for work are considered. So, to the extent that workers have dropped out of (or never entered) the labor force because they felt they would not be able to secure meaningful work, the official unemployment rate understates weakness in the labor market. Then you throw in the independent contractors and I am conservatively estimating a realistic US unemployment at 15%.
Meanwhile the US unemployment has been reported to be over 10%. Note that this figure is actually conservative under stringent unemployment criteria. For example, only jobless workers in the labor force actively looking for work are considered. So, to the extent that workers have dropped out of (or never entered) the labor force because they felt they would not be able to secure meaningful work, the official unemployment rate understates weakness in the labor market. Then you throw in the independent contractors and I am conservatively estimating a realistic US unemployment at 15%.
If you look at import-export figures, they are as dismal. Overall exports fell 9 per cent to $31.7-billion while imports fell 7.9 per cent $32.7-billion. According to Statscan, Exports to the United States, Canada's largest trading partner, fell by 8.9 per cent to $23.3-billion, largely reflecting drops in automotive and crude petroleum products. This outpaced an 8.4-per-cent decrease in imports.
It is hard to imagine that such severe numbers of decline can persist. I beg to differ.
The U.S. stock market has fallen 55 per cent from peak to trough, and is at essentially the same price level as it was in 1997. Volatility is extraordinarily high. But, rather than seeing how much it has fallen and how cheap is it now, it is more important to think relative to the future and how cheap it will be then. That is what the stock market is – banking on expectations of future value.
In a pessimist’s world, stocks are doomed.
6 comments:
I hope your doomsayer role on your blog can be balanced by a little bit of movement towards constructive suggestions of how to survive the gloomy circumstances now and the future instead of how impeccably doomed we are with no recourse.
You seem to like taking the light of hope from everyone else. May I ask how that serves you?
Constructive suggestions? I doubt people will listen till they accept the reality of the shit-hole they are in.
They can drink as much cool-aid as they want, it won't change reality, will it?
I am not here to offer solutions because change will take time and effort, and no one man or organization can do it by themselves.
But I will write a post about it just to answer your question.
people DO know what kind of a shit-hole they are in.
http://psychcentral.com/news/2009/03/13/families-feel-economic-pain/4726.html
though it seems there is couples' perceptions are discrepant, the consensus is that we are in terrible times.
Another interesting article that should feed your answer to my question of solutions. Is an increase in bank transparency and tougher regulation going to work better than stimulus packages? Is it possible to do both? Do you think the G20 will reach a consensus? And what can each and every one of us do with our finances?
opps, forgot the link:
http://www.france24.com/en/20090314-g20-discuss-credit-crunch-fight-deny-split
Well, everyone knows they are in the shits. But do they accept it for what it is? Do they understand why they are facing such a global downfall? Do they self-reflect and make sure they do not make the same mistakes again?
I doubt it.
I will elaborate in a post possibly today or tomorrow.
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