Friday, December 18, 2009

Private vs. Public


As the Copenhagen talks are set to wind down today, it is worth pointing out that 2009 is a year in which government investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency programs increased due to green stimulus projects. Linking public and private funds and providing a clearer regulatory environment in the sector will be key though consensus and consistent effort are difficult.

Linking the private with public seems to be the next great obstacle or crisis. This is all the more obvious since the ongoing massive swap from (almost) worthless private debt to (almost) guaranteed public debt will be the lasting bequest of the current financial crisis. Latest forecasts say that the average debt/GDP ratio of OECD countries will soar from less than 70% to more than 100% in the next few years. It is interesting to see what and how fiscal stabilization interventions affect real economy in response.

Meanwhile bubbles are popping up all over the place, from commodities like gold to real estate. Fueling these bubbles is unprecedented confidence levels that seemed to be more hopeful rather than rational. Some would make the argument that major players are simply playing the game of market manipulation and creating a smokescreen to lure the public. Others speculate that all bad things must come to an end (oblivious that by same reasoning, good must turn bad). Can we imagine that we are standing in a volcano ready to erupt at any time?

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