Friday, February 20, 2009

World in chaos - Back to Communism


The news yesterday that Vancouver will buy out $750 Million Olympic Village loan led me to question how the Canadian government is managing our budget. I was not naïve enough to believe that hosting the Olympics would cost us nothing but at the time, it was a good move to promote Vancouver to the rest of the world. Now, I have to question whether it is even worth it to carry through all the obligations which would fall back on the shoulders of the taxpayers (Canadian tax already among the highest in the world).

The Canadian government has been sheltering us from reality that recession will hit Canada hard. The BC Budget is based on the assumption that the unemployment rate will not exceed 6.2% for 2009. January unemployment is already standing at 6.1%. Whether it is job losses in the manufacturing, construction or collapsed businesses, the unemployment rate will continue to rise for most if not all of 2009. How is this bogus budget supposed to help us prepare for the upcoming storm?

Moving to the US. Today, Dow Jones hovers around 7,300 levels and gold at 997 pushing to break 1,000 which mean confidence is still dropping and people are turning back to gold as a safe haven. Will Obama’s call for unprecedented accountability in stimulus package inject new confidence in the market? Unprecedented accountability, whatever does it mean? With bankruptcy protections, human rights and what’s not, accountability continues to be a myth buried in the foundations of democracy which America is all about.

China seems to be the only country that is still standing strong. However, they are also facing several challenges. Their underlying social issues continue to build up with their corruption causing natural disasters to be much more destructive as in the case of SzeChuan’s earthquake. Their economic growth depends heavily on foreign trade and investments which are both severely affected by the global recession. Their growth has not been one built on creativity and breakthroughs; instead it has been the product of multiple bubbles building. If you are guaranteed a three-fold profit in a year or two, why should anyone even be working?

Singapore has always been the tower of stability in SE Asia. If you had taken a SIA flight recently, you would have noticed the loads of empty seats especially in the business and first class. Depending on the type of aircraft, SIA would need to fill from 50% to 70% in order to break even. As a leading indicator of how bad conditions have become, Singapore Airlines is shelfing 17 planes. It did not even do that at the heights of the Sars crisis six years ago when people were scared to fly for fear of catching the deadly virus.

Taiwan's economy shrunk more than 8% in the fourth quarter 2008. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter decline reflecting on the suffering economy and Taiwan dollar. Industrial production and export orders fell in January 41.7% and 43.1% respectively. Creativity and diligence cannot undo the damages corruption has done.

The world is in chaos. It will take an unprecedented global effort to achieve stability. If you want accountability, you better start with severe repercussions for greed. Then again, that would mean the demise of capitalist system which has been good to boost competitiveness and inflate bubbles. Bubbles are not healthy no matter how you look at it. They will eventually blow up like a volcano, burning anything in its path.

With Capitalism on its way down, Communism may end up being the best idea some days in the future. Then again, it will strike China first and will only happen when the proportion of the poor heavily outweigh the rich.

At the present rate, communism does not seem that far.

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