Monday, November 17, 2008

Where is the silver lining?


So as fear percolates in the ever so exciting market world, where is the silver lining in this storm? I would say that the silver lining is that as bad as things are, there will be a time of recovery. This implies that we have to make the most use of the bad mistakes of others.

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Everyone knows that there is a pileload of foreclosures and building up. Of course, the key is to pick the right property at the right time. And in the end, it still comes back to the US as the place with the highest potential for rebounding following a few criterias.
  • Focus on the Metropolitan cities which has high population growth and community development.

  • Need to have foreseeable future projects or growth of major local industries.

  • GDP must be high indicating high productivity and networking.

Timing is important, some areas in US like Texas has not seen a rise in real estate for over 10 years. Timing is also tricky and very hard to catch. Perhaps if you are the safe type, you would be wise not to be the first in the water but learn to catch the wave as big players move in.

If you are looking for foreclosures in the US, ALL-FORECLOSURES is one of the more comprehensive search and resource site.

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The same goes with stocks. You have to learn to play smart. A few stocks that were brought to my attention lately possess new technologies fulfilling our future needs thus they possess the potential to be profitable.
  • Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) - They make an anthrax vaccine and have a pipeline of other drugs with potential. Their biggest customer is the government. Stock is hitting 52-week highs even as the market craters. 30% revenue growth y/y.
  • Aecom Technology (ACM) - Company provides support for major infrastructure projects. Again, their major customer is the government. Stock price is 25% higher than October lows. 20% revenue growth y/y.
  • Insituform Technologies (INSU) - This company has a proprietary trenching system for replacing or upgrading underground pipe systems. Stock is nearly 50% higher than it's Oct low. Constant revenue growth.
  • Telecom Sao Paolo (TSP) - Operates land-line telephone, television and internet services in Brazil. Stock is 30% higher than October lows. Constant revenue growth. Pays a 12% dividend.
  • IShares MSCI Chile ETF (ECH) - Chile is probably the best performing emerging market over the last few weeks and is still 30% higher than it's October lows. It also fell less from it's highs earlier in the year, demonstrating a stronger economy. If (big if) I were to make a bet on an emerging market recovery, Chile would be the first place I look.

The first rule of picking good stocks are looking at the fundamental networth of the company and its products.

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